In August, New Zealand's Justice Minister authorized Kim Dotcom's immediate arrest and extradition. Dotcom's response to his followers on X was simple: "I'm not leaving." Another post mid-September - "we are very close to disaster" - led to Dotcom disappearing for three weeks. On his return, Dotcom said X had suspended his account, based on an extremely serious allegation. After accusing Elon Musk of failing to help, yesterday Dotcom warned that a Trump loss would see Musk indicted and "fighting for his life." Dotcom has a plan to avoid extradition; chaos like this provides the fuel.

Kim Dotcom’s war of attrition, against the governments of New Zealand and the United States, seems to have entered a new phase.

After 12 years of legal action, New Zealand Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith approved Dotcom’s extradition to the United States back in August.

New Zealand Herald recently obtained a copy of the order. As far as we know, the order still hasn’t been published in full, but it did authorize Dotcom’s immediate arrest.

“I authorize any constable to take Kim Dotcom, who is currently on bail, into custody,” the order reads, as per NZ Herald’s report. The rest of the text matches the standard extradition document format as shown below.

With a reputation for challenging orders from the New Zealand and United States governments, Dotcom’s response was true to form.

“I love New Zealand. I’m not leaving,” he told his 1.7 million followers on X.

“I completely forgot this dude existed”

On Reddit, the decision to extradite was discussed by the Kiwi inhabitants of /r/newzealand. The majority expressed awareness of Dotcom, but several were clearly surprised that after 12 years, somehow he’s still in New Zealand.

Public opinion on Kim Dotcom is sharply divided. He evokes strong reactions, which can broadly be summarized as follows; 1) The man, the myth, the legend. 2) I never really liked him much. 3) I absolutely loathe the guy.

A recent survey in New Zealand revealed that 46% of respondents believe Dotcom should be extradited. Almost a quarter (23%) said he should not, leaving just under a third (31%) confessing that they’re “unsure.”

Whether that means they could be convinced to support the Megaupload founder is up for debate. However, whether people like Dotcom or not, in the Reddit thread many New Zealanders found interesting common ground.

United in Criticism of the Government
Either in connection with Dotcom’s case or for other reasons, the New Zealand government receives withering criticism, even beyond that leveled at the United States.

“The dude has never even been to America and he is being sent to their fucking prison. Doesn’t matter what anyone thinks of Dotcom, the situation is really wack,” one commenter wrote.

“The US can fuck off, even though Kim dot com is a massive pile of shit,” wrote another. “This will set a dangerous precedence.(sic)”

And then the apparent common denominator; perceived New Zealand weakness due to the influence of the United States.

“Kowtowing to the powerful is going to be a theme of this government,” one commenter predicted. Another highlighted a point that has had many observers scratching their heads for over a decade; the illegal use of New Zealand’s external spy agency to gather intelligence on a New Zealand citizen, requested by a country the target has never visited.

“A German man, living in NZ, never visited the USA, with a Hong Kong company is somehow convicted and extradited to the USA. Using evidence via GCSB monitoring,” one comment notes.”I feel uncomfy about this precedence.”

The perception that New Zealand remains vulnerable to power and influence wielded from beyond its borders is not uncommon, especially in connection with the Dotcom saga.

It’s a matter of record that Dotcom was the subject of illegal government surveillance. What remains baffling is the sheer scale of the subsequent raid on his mansion: a military-style operation involving the same number of helicopters used to kill Osama bin Laden, and four times the manpower.

For those with a more conspiratorial outlook, fuel doesn’t get much more potent than that.

A Man With a Plan
The details of Dotcom’s “plan” to stay in New Zealand are yet to be revealed. Given Dotcom’s history, exhausting the judiciary with every possible avenue of appeal is pretty much guaranteed, no matter how unlikely the prospects of success.

At the same time, it’s likely that Dotcom will use social media to preach to the existing choir. He will also try to appeal to those who loathe him, and those who merely hate him, by focusing on a common grievance.

“People keep suggesting that I should leave this corrupt US colony like a fugitive on the run. Hell no,” he told 1.7 million X followers recently.

“Corrupt US colony” and the interchangeable “obedient” variant are clearly derogatory, catering to theories of joint complicity and snivelling weakness. This rhetoric has been visible on Dotcom’s social media accounts for some time, but the main theme is Dotcom’s belligerent, out-of-the-blue support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s Usefulness in the Extradition Jigsaw
Dotcom’s ‘support’ for Russia requires nuance. Dotcom frames Russia’s actions as the entirely predictable (and yet completely avoidable) response to the alleged failures of the United States. And, by extension, the untenable position of President Biden, the person Dotcom sees as the architect of his downfall through the destruction of Megaupload.

The crux of the matter is straightforward. In the event the Democrats retain power, Dotcom has no prospect of improving his entrenched position, which in part is the product of his own digging.

What Dotcom can do, however, is indirectly assist opponents of Biden and the Democrats. That destabilization can introduce new room for maneuver in New Zealand, where opportunity is all but exhausted.

Since 2022, Dotcom supported narratives more closely aligned with those of the Kremlin, in particular the claim that United States policy is the root cause of the current conflict. The amplification of anti-Ukraine rumors in the United States, strategically links alleged U.S. policy failures to billions of dollars in military aid, all at taxpayers’ expense.

This toxic mix, Dotcom insists, heralds the collapse of the dollar, the dismantling of the “US Empire”, and ultimately a global human catastrophe; World War 3, no holds barred.

A Complicated Smokescreen to Change the Status Quo
Some people believe that Dotcom genuinely supports Russia and, with his quotes regularly appearing on state-run news channels, arguing otherwise is a pretty tough ask.

A different assessment starts with the things Dotcom values most – his family, his wealth, and his freedom – and applies that to a reputation of doing whatever it takes to protect and maintain those three, non-negotiable aspects of his life. Right now, his best chance is to tilt the chess board via a change at the White House, and then carefully exploit a change in policy.

Dotcom’s colleagues took a plea deal from the U.S. and New Zealand that Dotcom insists he would never accept; certainly not if Biden was in power. A Donald Trump win, on the other hand, would introduce an administration Dotcom could be seen to negotiate with, on previously unthinkable terms, without losing face. Previous reluctance to admit any wrongdoing could suddenly seem trivial after the prevention of World War 3.

Dotcom Disappears After Being Accused of a Serious Crime
Dotcom has been rolling the dice in high stakes plays for some time, the narratives surrounding the murder of Democratic National Committee employee Seth Rich being one example among many. More recently the controversy surrounding the alleged contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop received considerable attention from Dotcom.

Dotcom’s recent decision to revive the controversy by publishing an image on X, reportedly part of the haul from the laptop in question, led to a long suspension from Elon Musk’s platform. X wanted Dotcom to confirm that he had committed a serious crime before reinstating his account; Dotcom refused.

After X reinstated Dotcom’s account, Dotcom retweeted the tweet that caused his suspension, the image in question intact.

“My Hunter post is now available again. However Elon was informed about my suspension immediately and did nothing for 2 weeks. He did that deliberately. Only Elon knows why,” Dotcom wrote.

“I always looked up to Elon for his innovations. I supported his takeover of Twitter and appreciated his whistleblowing with the Twitter files. He certainly gave me a voice until it was taken away. I thought he was one of the good guys and his stance for free speech was real. I’m not so sure anymore,” he continued.

On Substack, Dotcom explained his position in detail but was soon warning of a looming threat to Elon Musk, should the Democrats remain in the White House.

“Over the last year it has become obvious to most that dark times are ahead of us. Make good use of your time. All the best to you, sincerely.”